This is the first of what I hope will be a liliputian population of posts on Sarah Palin. I think Marc Ambinder strikes exactly the right balance between outright dismissal and outright sycophancy. If Palin is as smart as her supporters say she is, she’ll read Marc’s column very, very carefully.
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In the latest pair of Fox opinion polls, Obama has an approval/disapproval spread of -17 (34-51) among independents vs. Palin's spread of +11 (49-38). That's a hugh difference. But somehow it is Palin who is radioactive and unpopular and Obama who is beloved and popular? (And before you dismiss Fox, CBS, Gallup and others show a similar trend of independents fleeing Obama). I think the meme running around that Palin is the 2012 kingmaker is right on the money. She has the power to strangle any candidacy in the cradle because she strongly influences a small but important GOP base. Therefore, she will be courted by any candidate and a leading candidate for the VP slot. She is also a proven fundraiser and speechmaker. Finally, I think that she makes lots of her enemies act irrationally and say and do things that alienate independents. A lot of the final push for undecideds in the days before an election is who seems nicer. Palin can carry nice but she brings out the worst in many of her enemies and many voters don' t like the negative attacks.
First, you're conflating personal favorability with governing favorability. You can't rate Sarah Palin's governing popularity, because she quit public office. Obama's personal favorability among indepedents is +54 according to the latest Quinnipac poll. Palin's spread is +11 according to Fox News, but -15 according to CBS. And her top line numbers are going in the wrong direction:http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/fav-palin.phpSo yes, she is far more polarizing a person than Obama is. You might be right, she could end up a kingmaker. But I think it more likely she becomes the GOP's answer to Howard Dean, and a frightened GOP elite ends up going with the "safe" candidate, Mitt Romney. Also, Mike Huckabee, who's a pretty smart politician, could play his cards right and ride the Palin base to the nomination.Finally, do you not see the irony in arguing that Palin brings out the worst in her enemies… when your own Facebook picture is a Mao caricature of Obama?
I suppose you were cool with it when MoveOn depicted Bush with a Hitler mustache?